Charles Krupa, AP
Some folks are getting this wrong. The Buffalo Sabres, Arizona Coyotes and Edmonton Oilers are not competing in the Connor McDavid sweepstakes. It is the Jack Eichel sweepstakes.
With the NHL draft now just over three months away, McDavid is the clear No. 1.
What everyone seems to forget is that the worst team only has a 20% chance of winning the lottery and claiming McDavid.
The battle here is for a guarantee to draft Jack Eichel, who in other years would be a highly desirable No. 1. This year’s draft is like in 2004 when Alex Ovechkin and Evgeni Malkin were selected No. 1 and No. 2.
Boston University center Eichel is 6-2, 200 pounds and has 18 goals and 37 assists in the first 32 games of his college career. He could step into a NHL lineup next season.
The team that finishes dead last has an 80% chance of not getting McDavid, and a 100% chance of drafting Eichel. That’s the story for the Sabres, Coyotes and Oilers.
So who will secure Eichel? It seems as if it will come down to a battle between the Coyotes and Sabres. The Oilers may simply have too many players performing well to stay in contention
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With 18 games to play, the Sabres have three fewer points than Edmonton and four fewer than Arizona.
But the Oilers didn’t do enough at the trade deadline to hurt their ability to win. Defenseman Jeff Petry was the only significant player to move. Meanwhile, the Sabres traded away their No. 1 goalie Michal Neuvirth, plus Chris Stewart and Brian Flynn.The running joke, although some fans weren’t laughing about it, was the fact that Neuvirth was playing so well he was hurting Buffalo’s chances of securing the best lottery position.
In the Neuvirth deal, the Sabres picked up goalie Chad Johnson who owns an .889 save percentage. Neuvirth was at .918.
The Coyotes traded away their top two point-producing players in defenseman Keith Yandle and center Antoine Vermette, plus veteran defenseman Zybnek Michalek.
And let’s not forget that the Coyotes have now lost 10 in a row. During that same period of games, the Sabres have earned eight points and the Oilers have picked up seven.
Should the Oilers somehow manage to land the worst record and end up with Eichel, fans shouldn’t entertain the idea that the Oilers might consider taking No. 3 prospect Noah Hanifin because he is the young premium defenseman the Oilers are lacking.
Scouts say Eichel is a potential generational superstar and Hanifin is simply a very good prospect. There’s a difference. You might be happy with Hanifin, but you would be thrilled with Eichel.
The Coyotes’ recent slide has been eye-catching. They have only scored three goals once in their past 10 games. The Coyotes have scored one or no goals in six of those games. They have been out-scored 45-14 in that span.
The race could be decided March 26-30 when the Coyotes and Sabres play each other twice, once in each arena. Depending upon what is going on with the Oilers, those games could dbe viewed as Jack Eichel Night. This could be an intriguing race.
Your games tonight
Ottawa at Winnipeg, 7:30
NY Rangers at Detroit, 8:00 p.m., NBC Sports Network
Pittsburgh at Colorado, 10
Montreal at Anaheim, 10
Follow the rest of USA TODAY Sports’ in-depth NHL coverage at nhl.usatoday.com. Follow Kevin Allen on Twitter @ByKevinAllen.
