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Investors plug into tech in March

Matt Krantz
USA TODAY
Pedestrians walk past the Nasdaq stock market at Times Square on March 14, 2012, in New York City.

If you're been hating tech stocks ever since getting burned in 2000, march might be the time to put away the hate.

Tech stocks are back. And back big. The Nasdaq composite index is back to its dot-com bubble-fueled 5000 peak notched a long 15 years ago and about to set a new high. The Nasdaq 100, the collection of the 100 largest non-financial stocks in the Nasdaq, are up 20% from a year ago.

It's not the same tech stocks — or even the same tech investors — that are pushing tech stocks up this time around, says Alan Skrainka of Cornerstone Wealth Management. New tech stocks like Facebook and new areas like social and mobile communications are where the tech action is.

Interest in tech stocks isn't being driven by the same investors who got burned on fallen dot-coms. "There's a new generation of tech investors. This whole new generation is coming back to tech again," Skrainka says.

There's also a chance tech stocks could get some benefit from an unlikely place: cheap oil prices, says Michael Farr of Farr Miller & Washington. Consumers have had a break at the gas pump for nine months now, and are just coming around to thinking about how to deploy the extra cash. Some consumers might use their new found cash to buy their darling tech stocks, but more likely, use it to buy technology gadgets.

Some worry that the run in tech stocks is squeezing out what had been the compelling values that have driven the market rally. "Many of these tech stocks are so expensive, it's very daunting," Farr says.

Take the remarkable run in Skyworks Solutions, which makes a variety of semiconductors used in communications applications. The stock is up an astounding 160% over the past 12 months, the best tech in the Russell 1000 index, thanks to an impressive 65% increase in net income last year. Analysts are calling for the company's adjusted profit to rise another 51% this year. But here's the problem — all this appears to be priced in. Analysts are calling for the stock to be worth $89.11 in 18 months, which is just barely above where the stock is now.

That's not to say there aren't values to be found. Computer-memory device maker SanDisk still has 15% upside before hitting the 18-month price target of $91.74, says S&P Capital IQ. The stock is also rated "attractive" by New Constructs, which compares the current stock price to the present value of future cash flows. Fundamentally, this tech looks strong, too. Demand for storage for everything from smartphones to computer continues to grow, says Jim Kelleher of Argus Research. But unlike in years past, the key makers of this memory, including Samsung, Toshiba and Micron, aren't rushing to add capacity and drive down prices.

But tech is a tricky area — something investors who were around in 1999 and 2000 don't have to be reminded of. Tech giant Hewlett-Packard's stock still has significant upside before hitting the 18-month price target of analysts. But that's not so much a commentary on the strength of the business, but due to the stock's big fall on Feb. 25 after it reported quarterly revenue that fell short and more challenges ahead.

Tech is back. But remember it's not a sector for people who can't handle volatility.

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