With college kickers, margin for error thin, but rewards can be huge

Florida State's Roberto Aguayo is widely considered the best in the country at his position; a kicker so cool under pressure that if a game in the upcoming College Football Playoff game comes down to a field goal, none of the four coaches will feel more confident than Jimbo Fisher.

In an era where field goal reliability is widely viewed as low — just search Twitter for the hashtag #collegekickers on any given Saturday — Aguayo is the rare player whose misses (he's 46-for-49 in his career) rank among the most shocking developments of a season.

Aguayo, who recently was named an Associated Press All-American for the second consecutive year, also illustrates the difficulty college coaches have in evaluating kickers as they go through the recruiting process. Though the redshirt sophomore was among the highest-rated kickers coming out of South Lake High in Mascotte, Fla., several others around the country were considered just as good or better — including Alabama's Adam Griffith, who hasn't been nearly as reliable on the college level.

"He was highly rated, but he wasn't at the top," Fisher said. "He was in our camp and we liked everything about him from the get-go."

In theory, kickers should be among the easiest positions for college coaches to evaluate. Kickers' jobs are limited in scope, there are far fewer physical elements to project than with position players and most college-bound kickers participate in specialized camps around the country that make it easy to compare who kicks the longest and straightest. Though the goalposts in high school are 4 feet, 10 inches wider than college and the NFL, kicking is kicking.

But there's a reason kickers such as Aguayo are like gold for college programs, even playoff contenders. Most of what differentiates him from his peers is something that would be difficult if not impossible to measure in a camp or high school game.

"It's all inside here," Aguayo said recently, pointing to his head. "Anybody can kick far, anybody can have a strong leg. But if you can't manage it in games, you're not worth anything."

Already during bowl season, the value of a college kicker — for better or worse — has been in the spotlight. Memphis sophomore Jake Elliott, who wasn't even the highest-rated kicker Justin Fuente recruited in 2013, drilled a 54-yarder to tie the Miami Beach Bowl against BYU before the Tigers won in double overtime. The next night, San Diego State's Donny Hageman, who made 20 of 25 field goals this season, pushed a potential game-winner from 34 yards wide right in the waning seconds of the Poinsettia Bowl against Navy.

It should be noted that kicking in college, overall, is actually more reliable now than it used to be. Though the conversion rate this year in FBS is down slightly from 73.3% to 72%, the numbers were generally in the high 60s a decade ago.

But some high-profile misses combined with the effects of social media have fueled the perception that college kickers are unreliable or that coaches at certain programs don't place much emphasis on recruiting elite kickers.

That's not the case, according to Chris Sailer, a former All-American at UCLA who now runs kicking camps all over the country under his name. The problem, he said, is that most schools don't have a coach on staff who specializes in kicking technique, which means often they don't know what to look for. And given the 85-scholarship limit in FBS, meaning only a few will be devoted to specialists, the margin for error in recruiting is thin.

"Some schools will rely on walk-ons or only scholarship one kid every five years, but I see things changing," Sailer said. "Coaches are giving more scholarships (to kickers), creating more competition and recruiting guys to redshirt if they have a senior on the roster. The schools that do it right are definitely reaping the rewards."

No high-profile program in recent years has received more criticism for its kicking game than Alabama, a trend that began in 2011 when the Crimson Tide missed four of six field goals against LSU in a memorable 9-6 overtime loss. Though Jeremy Shelley came through in a rematch for the national title, making five field goals in a 21-0 win, Alabama's kicking game has rarely exuded confidence since.

In the last two seasons, Alabama has made 64.1% of its field goals, including the notable kicking meltdown in last season's Iron Bowl when Cade Foster and Adam Griffith combined to go 0-for-4. In Alabama's only loss this year — on Oct. 4 at Ole Miss — Griffith made just one of three attempts, though his misses were from 46 and 51 yards.

Alabama's struggles, though, haven't been for a lack of recruiting. Griffith was Rivals.com's No. 2-ranked kicker in the 2012 class by Rivals.com and Foster was the No. 10 prospect in 2010.

"If you look at it across the board, out of the top 20 national prospects, 15 to 18 end up doing really well," Sailer said. "You have a handful that kind of fizzle out and don't do well. I think it's very similar to any other position in that case, and I don't think it's the physical attributes; it's the mental attributes. You don't live up to the hype under pressure or you happen to miss kicks that are scrutinized by the public and media."

As important as the mental attributes are, though, they also happen to be the hardest to judge.

That's why Jamie Kohl, a former Iowa State kicker who is now one of the biggest names in the kicking camp business, said they try to do off-field and mental evaluations of kickers before publishing lists or making recommendations to college coaches.

"Are we 100%? No, but there's a high correlation with our top guys and guys that go onto the NFL," Kohl said. "(Former Auburn and current Philadelphia Eagles kicker) Cody Parkey was my No. 1 guy his senior year, and he did OK early on at Auburn but the thing I knew about Cody that others didn't was his commitment to the craft. Some guys mature and some don't. We can come up with all kinds of reasons, but at the end of the day there is a human element with everything in sports and in recruiting circles I think they overlook that quite a bit."

The other difficult element is that it's impossible to simulate situations that would have any value. The measurables are important, but at most kicking camps, there's no live rush against a defense, no pads and certainly not 100,000 people in a stadium.

That's why so many coaches rely on the evaluations of people such as Kohl and Sailer and hope for the best.

"The negative about kickers in particular is you don't get to put them in a game-ending situation, the pressure cooker, as much as you'd like," Oregon coach Mark Helfrich said. "It's so mental in terms of the preparation. You never know how much or when or if you're going to be involved (in a game), and when you are, it's really important."

Arizona State defensive coordinator Keith Patterson, who also has a heavy role in special teams, has a different take on evaluating kickers. He puts a heavy emphasis on athleticism and kickers who grew up playing multiple sports or multiple positions in football. His theory is that those players generally fare better than the kicking camp all-stars who look good in perfect conditions.

"You have to look at the intangibles, dependability and guys that can handle pressure. But you typically can't go wrong with big, strong-legged athletes," he said. "That way, if you do get a bad snap, maybe they can make something happen."

The 6-1 Aguayo fits that mold as a former multisport athlete who prides himself on competing with defensive backs during sprints. That competitive edge, he said, is something he would look for if he were looking for the next version of himself.

"There are some guys who are just rattled and can never get really good and it sucks," Aguayo said. "I like the big stage, I like being in big games. I just feel good like that's where my zone is. I've worked on it too in camps and high school to build up to where I'm at now. Some guys can do it at practice but can't do it in games."

That certainly doesn't guarantee that Aguayo will make the kick if next week's semifinal against Oregon comes down to a 45-yard field goal. But given his history, Florida State fans probably wouldn't mind if it does.

"When you're on the putting practice range, you can drill 10-footers all day but when something is at stake, certain people have the ability to calm their heart rate and let their natural mechanics take over and others don't," said Kohl, who worked with Aguayo on his mechanics in high school. "I try to figure that out, but there's a human element there, and sometimes it's hard to know what (differentiates) a guy who performs and who doesn't."​