Baseball impact of USA-Cuba thaw may take years

For years, every hint of a thawing in the USA-Cuba relations has been seen by baseball followers as the possible opening of the abundant market of players in the island.

That hasn't happened, and most future major league stars who have escaped the Communist government – such as Yasiel Puig, Jose Abreu and Yoenis Cespedes – have had to endure life-threatening ordeals to reach U.S. shores.

This time those wishes of free access to that talent may finally come to pass – but not right away, and likely not for quite a while.

President Obama's simultaneous announcement with his Cuban counterpart Raul Castro that the countries would seek to normalize relations after a freeze of more than 50 years was welcome news in the baseball community, which has benefited from the influx of Cuban defectors in recent years. Five natives of the island played in July's All-Star Game.

But while the policy changes may pave the path for expatriates to return to Cuba freely and for American visitors to travel there legally, the street doesn't necessarily run both ways.

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Author and noted Cuban expert Peter Bjarkman pointed out the struggling Cuban league, or Serie Nacional, has been beset by the defections of several of its best players, and there's little incentive for government officials to facilitate the continued exodus.

"This new policy does not in any way change the nature of the Cuban government,'' Bjarkman said. "They're not going to go back to 1955, and the same thing with baseball. They don't want to simply turn over what they have to MLB. So it's going to be very hard to negotiate slowly some kind of a change in relations. It's not going to come overnight.''

It does, however, open up myriad possibilities in terms of how Cuban players might emigrate to the USA - and how they and the Cuban government may be compensated.

The harrowing defections endured by Puig and others - involving dangerous boat trips and deals with smugglers to aid in their travel - may become a thing of the past. And the instant riches players like Puig and Abreu found once they made it to the USA - signing deals worth $42 million and $68 million, respectively – might be reduced.

That doesn't mean Cuban players would be bound by the rules that now govern the signing of international players from countries like the Dominican Republic and Venezuela. A pragmatic solution for both the Serie Nacional and Major League Baseball could be to develop a posting system similar to the arrangement MLB has with Japan's top league, Nippon Professional Baseball.

That system, revised in 2013, ensures the Japanese league receives as much as $20 million to release a player to Major League Baseball. Such infusions of cash could be appealing for the Cuban league, which has seen marquee players escape with no compensation.

Such a solution could be many years down the road, though it would be part of an ongoing evolution that has seen relaxed restrictions for many Cubans.

Under the leadership of Raul Castro, who succeeded his brother Fidel permanently in 2008, Cuba has instituted a series of reforms that eased travel abroad to regular citizens. However, high-level athletes and politicians still require special permission.

A new law implemented in 2013 allows Cuban professional athletes to sign contracts overseas as long as they "fulfill their obligations at home.'' For baseball players that means competing for their clubs in the Serie Nacional, which runs from November through mid-April, with three rounds of playoffs after that.

While elite players such as Frederich Cepeda, Alfredo Despaigne and Yulieski Gourriel have been granted the right to play in Japan under such conditions, the conflict with the MLB season – with spring training beginning in mid-February and the postseason ending in late October – may present a large obstacle even with normalized political relations.

"The idea that suddenly they will open the doors and let scouts come in and start peddling their players to the major leagues, that will probably eventually happen at some point – it would almost have to because I don't think Cuba can survive the way it's going now – but it isn't going to happen because of this change in policy today,'' Bjarkman said.

Nonetheless, those familiar with the hardships Cuban players have withstood to get a chance at reaching the majors – usually leaving their families behind and being branded as traitors by the Cuban government – greeted Wednesday's announcement with renewed optimism.

"I'm very happy, very grateful to the Cuban government, very grateful to the American government, to President Obama, for finally thinking about the Cuban people, for thinking about our families, for thinking about the exiles and the Cubans who live in this country," said Reds catcher Brayan Pena, who came to the U.S. at 16. "We're the ones suffering because of the distance and not being able to return to our native land."

Jaime Torres, an agent who has represented Cuban players for more than 20 years – including Puig, Jose Contreras, Alexei Ramirez and Yuniesky Betancourt – said the change in policy was a long time in coming, although it's too early to know its full ramifications.

He compared its historic implications to Cuban native Minnie Minoso's debut with the Cleveland Indians in 1949 as the first Latin player of color in the majors, and expressed a commonly held desire for Cuban players to be able to play in the U.S. and return home without retribution.

"There's still a lot of talent in Cuba,'' Torres said. "I think this incentive will motivate more players to give their all. Many Cuban players abandoned their teams and their careers because they were blocked from making the national team and traveling abroad and providing for their families.''

Torres, a lawyer, believes it will be easier for Cuban players – who now have to wait to be unblocked by the Office of Foreign Assets Control – to be granted entry to ply their trade in the U.S., but he wondered how MLB officials and the players association would react to the news.

While the value of contracts signed by Cuban defectors has escalated in recent years – with three deals valued at $68 million or above in the last 14 months – bonus restrictions added to the collective bargaining agreement two years ago seek to curb the amount of money spent on younger amateur players.

Both baseball and the union issued statements saying they're monitoring developments.

"While there are not sufficient details to make a realistic evaluation,'' the MLB statement said, "we will continue to track this significant issue, and we will keep our Clubs informed if this different direction may impact the manner in which they conduct business on issues related to Cuba."