OHL could have weak draft, even with Connor McDavid
Lately at Red Line Report, we've been having an interesting dialogue among our staff. Nearly everyone is excited to be focused on a deep group of prospects in their areas and is talking about what a strong draft this will be.
Then our Ontario scouts start talking and the sense of gloom and doom is palpable. In fact, one of our primary Ontario guys recently said, "Without question, this is the weakest crop of talent I've seen in the OHL in my 10 years of working for Red Line."
It seemed an odd thing to say in a year when the Ontario Hockey League has a generational, once-in-a-decade talent (Connor McDavid), as well as four of the top seven players on our list overall.
And yet, in going through our midseason rundowns, inescapably we came to the conclusion that there's a rare statistical anomaly shaping up for 2015: namely, a dynamic draft year despite a thin crop in Ontario.
After those top four from the "O," (McDavid, Mitch Marner, Dylan Strome, and Pavel Zacha), there's a small dropoff to Lawson Crouse, and then… the bottom drops out. As in, there might only be another half dozen prospects from Ontario taken in the first two rounds. Compare that to 2014, when by our count there were 20 OHLers taken in the first two rounds.
So, how can the dichotomy be explained? Remember back in 2013 when we said the Quebec Major Junior Hockey League was having a once-in-a-generation type of draft class from Quebec? Well, apparently whole generations only last about 18 months in Quebec now.
Nearly every night we walked into a "Q" building during the first half of this season, we've come away thinking we just watched a pleasant surprise. In addition to guys like the Roys (Jeremy and Nicolas), Evgeni Svechnikov, and Daniel Sprong — who everybody knew about — the happy emergence of nice prospects like Thomas Chabot, Yakov Trenin, Anthony Beauvillier, Dmytro Timashov, and Simon Bourque from the ranks of the unknown to fill in a deep second tier has been a godsend.
Even players like Adam Marsh, Jordan Fournier, and Jeremy Lauzon are bubbling up to the surface - to the point where Red Line could now see as many as two dozen Q prospects taken in the first three rounds of the draft. Throw in strong crops from the United States and Europe, and there's our answer to the original question.
PHOTOS: Red Line Report's Top 10 prospects
Rising
Adam Marsh (Saint John): He's skilled at both finishing and agitating - a really annoying combination for opponents, but both traits we'd want on our team.
Parker Wotherspoon (Tri-City): Finesse, offensive blue-liner has been an excellent surprise showing smarts and creativity. Now he needs to add some weight/strength.
Brock Boeser (Waterloo): Has been tearing it up in the United States Hockey League. Has even more skill than we originally thought - and we thought he had plenty.
Alexander Dergachev (St. Petersburg): This big Russian tank reminded us in last month's Subway Series why we liked him so much last year. Just dominates below the circles.
Jeremiah Addison (Ottawa): Our sleeper pick this month who is really starting to thrive on Dante Salituro's wing. Has good speed and size, and the mitts appear pretty soft. Could be a late bloomer.
Falling
Brett McKenzie (North Bay): We're approaching the halfway point and he has four goals. F-o-u-r. That can't be good.
Travis Konecny (Ottawa): We're getting very tired of waiting for last year's version of Konecny to show up. What happened to that guy?
News and notes from around the scouting community
-Going to watch prospects at a Saint John Sea Dogs game is like going to the circus to see how many clowns are going to get out of that Volkswagen! There are about eight Sea Dogs players who will be on our prospect rankings at some point this year.
One hidden gem that new Sea Dogs GM Darrell Young unearthed through his brother, Wendell, is Chicago-area native Adam Marsh. Marsh, like his father — Peter — is a true sniper who, with 15 goals in 32 games, is on pace for 33 goals as a Q rookie.
Several NHL scouts have also commented admiringly to Red Line about the vinegar Marsh plays with, despite tipping the scales at just 158 pounds soaking wet. His combination of super soft hands and nasty edge has tongues wagging, and he's already become one of the most interesting of the Saint John prospects.
-While defensemen Thomas Chabot and Jakub Zboril are still the best of Saint John's brigade in Red Line's opinion, we also keep noticing Spencer Smallman whenever we watch the Sea Dogs. He's kind of a meat-and-potatoes guy, but he makes everyone better.
His birthday is Sept. 9, 1996, so this is his second year of eligibility, but he seems to keep getting better every time we watch him. There might not be more than third-line potential there, but he's a good all-purpose player with decent size and grit.
-On a team with a porous defense and very little back pressure from their forwards, it's easy to overlook a defenseman who is going about doing his job and doing the little things right. But our attention is still focused on Matt Spencer of the Peterborough Petes because of his steady play, despite the lack of structure around him.
He's making the proper reads and moving the puck up the ice crisply. With his large frame, he blocks out, and pins and seals his opponent properly. His high hockey IQ and knowing where to be at all times comes naturally and hints at a nice upside for the blossoming blue-liner.
-What is quickly becoming one of the most baffling prospect situations in a few years out west has not escaped our attention this month. After making the Canadian under-18 team and performing admirably in the Hlinka Cup this past August, defenseman Connor Hobbs (a real Red Line favorite) recently left the Medicine Hat Tigers and is playing close to home for the Nipawin Hawks of the SJHL while he awaits a trade out of the Hat.
What we don't understand is why his rights were not traded to another Western Hockey League club long before it came to this. It was clear to us in multiple viewings early this season with the Tigers that he was more than prepared to play in the league. Medicine Hat has a very deep blue line and ice time was at a premium for Hobbs, but we just don't think he is best suited to be playing in the crash and bang league that is the SJHL. So for now, it doesn't seem as though anyone's best interests are being served.
Our man in Calgary took in a couple of World Junior A Challenge Team Canada West practices before publication, and our reports on Hobbs are uniformly positive - he clearly was on another level from all the other Jr. A players in camp. Hopefully this logjam will break soon and the Tigers find another spot for him in the Dub before his draft stock is irreparably harmed.